北约前秘书长：谁是自由世界的领袖？

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2018年7月12日，北约峰会正式召开，美国在峰会前对欧盟软硬兼施，想法设法力图欧洲态度软化。 前北约副秘书长，美国前驻俄罗斯大使Alexander Vershbow发表署名文章《谁是自由世界的领袖？》。现中英双语全文编译仅供参考。

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《谁是自由世界的领袖？》

作者：Alexander Vershbow

编译：学术plus

原载：http://thehill.com/ 2018.7.1

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The NATO summit in Brussels is less than two weeks away, and apprehension is growing among America’s European allies. There is no shortage of good “deliverables” in the pipeline for the July 11 meeting. But after the bitter recriminations at the G-7 summit in Canada, allies are wondering whether they will be in for nothing more than a tongue lashing by President Trump over insufficient defense spending, further inflaming transatlantic divisions over trade, the Iran deal, and other issues.

布鲁塞尔召开在即，美国的欧洲盟友也越来越担忧。正在筹备中的7月11日会议，并不缺少良好的“预期成果”。但在加拿大七国集团(g7)峰会上的激烈指责之后，盟友们都在想，他们在会上是否只会就特朗普总统在国防开支不足的问题上大费口舌，并进一步加剧大西洋两岸在贸易、伊朗协议和其他问题上的分歧。

The apprehension is even greater now that Trump will hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki immediately after the NATO summit. Allies do not doubt the importance of dialogue with Moscow, yet worry that the Trump will use the same playbook with Putin as he used in Singapore with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un by cozying up to another strongman, staying silent on values, and offering one-sided concessions that could deal another blow to allied unity.

更令人担忧的是，在北约峰会后，特朗普将立即在赫尔辛基与俄罗斯总统普京举行峰会。同盟国并不怀疑与莫斯科对话的重要性，却担心特朗普与普京政治上达成共识，就像他在新加坡与金正恩那样，与另一位强人合作，在价值观上保持沉默，并对俄做出可能令联盟团结造成另一次打击的让步。

Gifts to Putin could include a unilateral curtailment of United States and NATO “war games” in Europe by accepting Putin’s false claims that these defensive exercises are “provocative” as he did with Kim in Singapore. Trump could lift some of the punitive steps taken to punish Russia for its interference in the U.S. elections, such as the closure of the Russia espionage compounds on Maryland’s eastern shore.

给普京的礼物可能包括，单方面削减美国和北约在欧洲的军事演习，接受普京的错误观点，即这些防御性行为具有“挑衅性”，就像他在新加坡对金正日所做的那样。特朗普可能会采取一些惩罚措施来惩罚俄罗斯干涉美国大选，例如阻断俄罗斯在马里兰州东岸的间谍机构。

Russian pundits are predicting that Trump will effectively accept the annexation of Crimea in return for vague promises by Putin to curb Iranian influence in Syria. This would undermine commitments that Crimea remains part of Ukraine. By acquiescing to Russia’s aggression, Trump would undermine one of the main pillars of the international order that the United States created after World War II. Although Congress would likely refuse to lift sanctions on Russia, acceptance that “Crimea is Russia” would be seen as betrayal of America’s friends and principles. Tactical unpredictability can be useful, but strategic unreliability is self-defeating.

俄罗斯专家预测，特朗普将实际上接受吞并克里米亚，以换取普京对遏制伊朗在叙利亚影响力的含糊承诺。这将破坏克里米亚仍是乌克兰一部分的承诺。通过默许俄罗斯的侵略，特朗普将破坏美国在二战后建立的国际秩序的主要支柱之一。尽管国会很可能拒绝解除对俄罗斯的制裁，但承认“克里米亚是俄罗斯”将被视为背叛美国的朋友和原则。战术上的不可预测性是有用的，但战略上的不可预测性则会弄巧成拙。

A year ago, Europeans, as well as most Americans, would have never thought that these nightmare scenarios could come to pass on the world stage. Indeed, in Warsaw last July, Trump conveyed a much more positive vision for the Atlantic alliance. His speech was addressed to the people of Poland, but his message was a powerful expression of American leadership and a reaffirmation of Western values that resonated across all of the countries of NATO and the European Union.

一年前，欧洲人以及大多数美国人从未想过这些噩梦般的情景会在世界舞台上传播开来。事实上在去年7月的华沙，特朗普为大西洋联盟提出了一个更加积极的愿景。尽管他是对着针对波兰人说的，但他的讲话是对美国领导力的有力表达，也是对西方价值观的重申，这些价值观引起了北约和欧盟所有国家的共鸣。

In Warsaw, Trump unequivocally reaffirmed Article V, the commitment by every NATO member to come to the defense of any ally under armed attack. He declared that U.S. policy in Europe went beyond self-defense. The United States was determined to work with its democratic allies to preserve the West and to protect our security and our way of life in the face of enemies that seek to “test our will, undermine our confidence, and challenge our interests.” He underscored in unequivocal terms the importance of allies to U.S. security when he said, “There is nothing like this community of nations. The world has never known anything like it. We must have the desire and the courage to preserve it in the face of those who would subvert and destroy it.”

在华沙，特朗普毫不含糊地重申了第五条的内容，即每一个北约成员国都承诺保卫任何受到武装袭击的盟友。他宣称美国在欧洲的政策超越了自卫。面对那些试图“考验我们的意志、削弱我们的信心、挑战我们的利益”的敌人，美国决心与它的民主盟友一道保护西方，保护我们的安全和生活方式。他毫不含糊地强调了盟友对美国安全的重要性。“世界上没有任何东西能比得上这个国际大家庭。世界上从未有过这样的事情。我们必须有意愿和勇气，在那些颠覆和毁灭它的人面前维护它。”

Does Trump still stand by those words? Will he go to the NATO summit as the leader and defender of the West and of the free world as he did in Warsaw? Or will he continue to castigate America’s allies and reinforce the impression he intends to abdicate U.S. leadership in favor of closer ties with an authoritarian Russia? I hope he chooses the first course. In a turbulent world, and facing a revisionist Russia and China, we need a strong NATO more than ever. The summit should be the occasion for Trump to reunify the alliance and chart its course for the future.

特朗普是否仍然支持这些话？他会像在华沙一样作为西方和自由世界的领导者和捍卫者参加北约峰会吗？或者他是否会继续抨击美国的盟友，并强化他打算放弃美国领导人的印象，支持与专制俄罗斯建立更紧密的联系？我希望他选择前者。在动荡的世界中，面对修正主义的俄罗斯和中国，我们比以往任何时候都需要强大的北约。峰会应该是特朗普重新统一联盟并为未来制定路线的时机。

Yes, allies who are not on track to fulfill their pledge to increase defense spending to 2 percent of gross domestic product should be criticized, but this should not be the sole focus in Brussels. Instead, Trump should focus on galvanizing the allies to invest in the capabilities and new technologies that NATO will need if its defense and deterrence are to remain credible in a world of cyberwarfare and artificial intelligence.

那些没有履行承诺将国防开支增加到国内生产总值(gdp)的2%的盟友的确应该受到批评，但这不应该是布鲁塞尔的唯一焦点。相反，特朗普应该把重点放在激励盟国投资于北约所需的能力和新技术上，如果北约要在网络战和人工智能的世界中保持其防御和威慑的可信度，北约将需要这些能力和新技术。

Trump should press the allies to increase their commitments of forces to NATO’s counterterrorism and stability missions in Afghanistan and other parts of the Middle East. He should lay out his plans for his meeting with Putin and seek advice from allies, since the best way to engage with Putin is from a position of strength, and that comes with a unified alliance.

特朗普应该敦促盟国增加对北约在阿富汗和中东其他地区的反恐和稳定任务的部队承诺。他应该阐明与普京会面的计划，并从盟友那里寻求建议，因为与普京接触的最佳方式是基于强有力的、统一的西方联盟。

A divisive NATO summit, on the other hand, and the growing estrangement of the United States from Europe that would result, would be a giveaway to Putin. His Russia seeks to divide the West, undermine NATO, and discredit the values of democracy, individual liberty, and rule of law, on which the alliance was founded. A NATO in decline helps Putin to continue his hybrid war on the West.

另一方面，分裂的北约峰会，以及由此导致的美国与欧洲日益疏远，将是对普京的馈赠。他的俄罗斯试图分裂西方，破坏北约，破坏民主、个人自由和法治的价值观，而这正是联盟建立的基础。北约的衰落帮助普京继续他在西方的混合战争。

President Trump loves to surprise. Let us hope that he can swing in a positive direction at NATO, pivot off a successful summit to press Putin to change his aggressive course, and claim vindication over his critics.

特朗普总统喜欢惊喜。我们希望，他能在北约(NATO)朝着积极的方向前进，在一次成功的峰会上转向，迫使普京改变其咄咄逼人的路线，并向他的批评者证明自己。

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